Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
